World cotton trade is forecast at 39.6 million bales for 2013/14, 15 percent below the previous season. Over the last 2 years, imports by China have driven the trade as China imported more than 20 million bales in both the 2011 and 2012 marketing years.
However, China is forecast to import only 12 million bales this season, a level similar to 2010/11; at the current forecast, China will account for 30 percent of global imports, compared with 44 percent in 2012/13. The decline in China’s imports is partially offset by increased imports by Turkey, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.
With the decline in global import demand, most major exporting countries are expected to have lower shipments in 2013/14. India is one exception, however, as cotton exports are projected to reach 8.0 million bales in 2013/14. Based on recent shipment data, India’s export forecast was raised 500,000 bales in April. Similarly, Australia’s forecast was increased 700,000 bales this month to 4.5 million bales; however, exports there remain below the 6.2 million bales shipped in 2012/13.
With global cotton production exceeding consumption for the fourth year in a row, world 2013/14 ending stocks are estimated to increase 8 percent to a record 96.9 million bales. USDA’s April 2013/14 revisions included a 1.0-million-bale increase in China’s ending stocks, the result of a higher import forecast there. As highlighted earlier, China is projected to account for 61 percent of global stocks at the end of 2013/14.
Stocks in India—the next largest stock holder—are forecast at 10.2 million bales, or 11 percent of the world total. With record world stocks, the global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at nearly 89 percent, up from 84 percent in 2012/13 but double the level recorded in 2010/11.
